Forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicate the 2026 El Niño is likely to peak in December. Even before that peak, it has reached record levels: Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology reported in October 2026 that average weekly sea-surface temperatures in the central Pacific were the highest on record, and on a climate-adjusted index they now exceed the record-breaking December 2015 event. The strongest worldwide effects, such as drought, flooding and higher global temperatures, are expected late in 2026 and into 2027.
Image: Pacific sea-surface temperature anomaly during the 1997–98 super El Niño, December 1997. NASA Scientific Visualization Studio, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.
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