About 50,391 people died from heat in 854 European cities during June, July and August 2026, and researchers attribute 32,619 of those deaths, nearly two-thirds, to human-caused climate change.
The estimate comes from a study by Imperial College London scientists, led by climate scientist Clair Barnes, in an upcoming issue of Nature Health. The toll is 71% higher than the previous deadliest summer the team tracked, 2022, when 29,480 people died. It is also an underestimate: it excludes a deadly May heat wave and covers cities holding only about 40% of Europe’s population. About one-third of the deaths came during a June 17 to July 1 heat wave, when temperatures ran 5.3°C (9.5°F) above normal. Italy, France, Spain and Germany had the highest tolls, and more than half of those who died were 85 or older. Because heat deaths are often missing from death certificates, the team used statistical models and compared real temperatures with simulations of a world without climate change.
Image: Sweltering southern Europe (Copernicus Sentinel-3A data, 2017), ESA, CC BY-SA 3.0 IGO, via Wikimedia Commons.