Will Brazil’s 2026 presidential election go to a runoff between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula?

Yes, according to projections. Pollster Datafolha projected on the evening of Sunday, October 4, 2026, that Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), 45, and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), 80, will meet in a second-round runoff on October 25, 2026. Datafolha made the call with 47.26% of ballot boxes counted, when Flávio had 50.2% of valid votes and Lula had 41.6%.

In Brazil, a presidential candidate needs more than 50% of valid votes in the first round to win outright; otherwise the top two candidates meet in a runoff. Vote counting continued through Sunday night, so final first-round percentages may differ from the early figures.

Source: Folha de S.Paulo — Datafolha Projects: Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula Advance to Presidential Election Runoff.

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